[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 13 10:30:18 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 Nov, with no 
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on 
the visible disk. Very low to low solar flare activity is expected 
for the next three UT days, 13-15 Nov. No earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 12 
Nov. The solar wind decreased from 540 km/s at the start of the 
UT day, 12 Nov, to 420-430 km/s at the time of the report. The 
IMF Bt was mostly steady near 3-4 nT. The Bz component of IMF 
fluctuated between -3 nT and +3 nT. The outlook for today, 13 
Nov, is for the solar wind speed to decrease towards its background 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Cocos Island         1   110001--
      Darwin               2   110110--
      Townsville           3   111220--
      Learmonth            3   110112--
      Alice Springs        3   111111--
      Norfolk Island       3   10211012
      Culgoora             3   11111112
      Gingin               3   201112--
      Camden               4   11121112
      Canberra             3   111210--
      Launceston           5   21122112
      Hobart               3   11121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   010210--
      Casey               12   243312--
      Mawson              11   431222--
      Davis               11   23322224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3222 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active
15 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 12 Nov. Mostly quiet and unsettled 
conditions are expected for today, 13 Nov. On 14-15 Nov the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to increase and can reach active levels 
in response to the effects associated with the high speed solar 
wind streams associated with the next recurrent northern hemisphere 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed for 
12 Nov. Degraded HF conditions is a consequence of the recent 
increased geomagnetic activity. Normal to fair HF conditions 
are expected for the next UT day, 13 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov   -26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
14 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
15 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 12 November 
and is current for 12-13 Nov. Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ 
region MUFs were near predicted monthly values or depressed by 
15%-25% as a consequence of the recent increased geomagnetic 
activity. Similar HF conditions are expected for 13 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 546 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   255000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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