[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 November 17 issued 2333 UT on 13 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 14 10:33:35 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 November. There
are currently no numbered solar regions on the visible disk.
Very low solar flare activity is expected for the next three
UT days, 14-16 November, with a chance of C-class flares. No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery on UT day 13 November. The solar wind continued to decrease,
from around 430 km/s at the start of the UT day, 13 Nov, to around
370 km/s at the time of the report. The IMF Bt varied between
2-5 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -4 nT
and +4 nT. The solar wind stream is expected to become enhanced
later on UT day 14 November or early on 15 November due to the
possible influence of a recurrent positive polarity northern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11111311
Cocos Island 2 11011200
Darwin 4 11012311
Townsville 5 11122311
Learmonth 5 11112311
Alice Springs 4 11012311
Norfolk Island 5 -1221212
Culgoora 3 01111211
Gingin 4 11011311
Camden 4 11121211
Canberra 2 01111210
Launceston 6 12222311
Hobart 4 02121310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 01132300
Casey 11 34222322
Mawson 11 34123320
Davis 11 23223421
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1201 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 14 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active levels
later in the UT day
15 Nov 18 Unsettled to Active
16 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region during the UT day, 13 November. Quiet to
Unsettled conditions are expected for the start of today, 14
November, then increase to Unsettled to Active levels either
later on 14 November or early 15 November. This is in response
to the effects of the high speed solar wind streams associated
with the next recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
16 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values or depressed by 15%-25% as
a consequence of the recent increased geomagnetic activity. Sporadic
E was observed throughout the Australian region. Similar HF conditions
are expected for 14 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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