[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 12 10:30:24 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 Nov, with no 
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on 
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days (12-15 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 11 Nov. 
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar 
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal 
hole. During the previous rotation this coronal hole produced 
daily average solar wind speeds in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive 
days. Similar effects are expected for this rotation. On UT day 
11 Nov, the solar wind decreased from 640 km/s at the start to 
UT day to 520 km at 11/1700 UT, then the winds started increase 
again. The current solar wind speed is 540 km/s. The IMF Bt were 
mostly steady near 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between 
-2 nT and +4 nT. The outlook for today, 12 Nov, is for the solar 
wind speed to remain at these elevated levels in response to 
the slowly waning effects of the recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22233111
      Cocos Island         3   11112110
      Darwin               5   21123111
      Townsville           7   22233111
      Learmonth            7   22233111
      Alice Springs        7   22233111
      Norfolk Island       5   22222111
      Culgoora             7   22233111
      Gingin               7   22233111
      Camden               7   22233111
      Canberra             6   22232111
      Launceston           9   22243112
      Hobart               7   22233111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    13   22254111
      Casey               15   44432221
      Mawson              15   54322212
      Davis               10   33332221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   3443 4532     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 11 Nov. 
Mostly quiet and unsettled conditions are expected for today, 
12 Nov, with possible isolated active conditions. The forecasted 
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are in response to the effects 
of the high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent 
northern hemisphere coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed for 
10 Nov. Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next 
UT day, 11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   -25    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs 
were near predicted monthly values or depressed by 15%-30% as 
a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity. Similar 
HF conditions are expected for 12 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 651 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:   317000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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