[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 11 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (11-13 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 10 Nov.
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal
hole. During the previous rotation this coronal hole produced
daily average solar wind speeds in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive
days. Similar effects are expected for this rotation. At 0230
UT the solar wind speed reached its minimum value of 540 km/s,
then its started increasing up to 690 km/s at 1350 UT and after
that it was slowly decreasing, currently at 630 km/s. The maximum
value of Bt, 8.4 nT, was observed at 0520 UT, then IMF Bt was
decreasing, currently at 3 nT. The longest prolonged period with
negative Bz (up to -6 nT) was 0405 UT to 0645 UT. The outlook
for today, 11 Nov, is for the solar wind speed to remain elevated
in response to the slowly waning effects of the recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 22334322
Cocos Island 8 22233221
Darwin 11 22334222
Townsville 12 22334322
Learmonth 16 22335332
Alice Springs 15 22335322
Norfolk Island 9 12233321
Culgoora 12 22334321
Gingin 14 32334332
Camden 13 22344321
Canberra 12 22334321
Launceston 16 23344332
Hobart 13 23343321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 38 24575421
Casey 26 46443332
Mawson 37 34544456
Davis 30 34554353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 4323 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 22 Active
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11 Nov only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet to active levels across the Australian region during
the UT day, 10 Nov. Mostly active conditions are expected for
today, 11 Nov, with possible isolated minor storm levels; then
the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease. The forecasted
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are in response to the effects
of the high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent
northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed for
10 Nov. Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next
UT day, 11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11 Nov only. Over the last 24 hours in the
Australian/NZ region MUFs were near predicted monthly values
or depressed by 15%-30% as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic
activity. Similar HF conditions are expected for 11 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 542 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 254000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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