[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 17 issued 2340 UT on 09 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 10 10:40:43 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 9 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (10-12 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 9 Nov.
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal
hole. The solar wind speed was slowly decreasing on average from
610 km/s to 510 km/s up to 2100 UT. IMF Bt was relatively steady,
varying in the range 4-6 nT. There were several prolonged periods
with negative Bz; Bz reached -6 nT. Then both the solar wind
speed and IMF Bt increased to 560 km/s and 8 nT, respectively.
The outlook for today, 10 Nov, is for the solar wind speed to
remain at high to moderate levels in response to the effects
of the recurrent coronal hole. During the previous rotation this
coronal hole produced daily average solar wind speeds in excess
of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive days. Similar effects are expected
for this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 22343333
Cocos Island 8 21232322
Darwin 12 22243233
Townsville 14 22343333
Learmonth 17 22254333
Alice Springs 13 22343233
Norfolk Island 8 12332222
Culgoora 12 22342233
Gingin 18 32253433
Camden 13 22342333
Canberra 11 22342223
Launceston 18 23452333
Hobart 14 22452222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 30 23565432
Casey 22 35433334
Mawson 42 45444646
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 47 7634 5534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 29 Active
11 Nov 27 Active
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 8 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet to active levels across the Australian region during
the UT day, 9 Nov. Mostly active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels are expected for today, 10 Nov; then the geomagnetic
activity is expected to decrease. The forecasted disturbed geomagnetic
conditions are in response to the effects of the high speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions were observed for
9 Nov. Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next
2 UT days, 10-11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
12 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 8 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Over the last 24 hours MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern Australian
region and depressed by 20% in the Southern Australian Region
as a consequence of the major geomagnetic storm occurred on 7-8
Nov. Similar HF conditions are expected for 10-11 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 609 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 332000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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