[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 9 10:30:22 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 Nov, with no 
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on 
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days (09-11 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 8 Nov. 
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar 
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal 
hole. The solar wind speed reached its maximum value of 690 km/s 
in the vicinity of 8/0000 UT, then it was slowly decreasing on 
average, currently at 570 km/s. IMF Bt was steady, varying in 
the vicinity of 6-7 nT. There were several prolonged periods 
with negative Bz, the longest one is from 0740 UT to 1500 UT, 
when Bz reached -7 nT. The outlook for today, 9 Nov, is for the 
solar wind speed to remain at high to moderate levels in response 
to the effects of the recurrent coronal hole. During the previous 
rotation this coronal hole produced daily average solar wind 
speeds in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive days. Similar 
effects are expected for this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   34234333
      Cocos Island        12   22234313
      Darwin              13   33233323
      Townsville          17   34233433
      Learmonth           21   34335423
      Alice Springs       14   34233323
      Norfolk Island      18   35233333
      Culgoora            15   34233333
      Gingin              18   33235333
      Camden              19   35234333
      Canberra            18   25234333
      Launceston          23   35344433
      Hobart              22   35344423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    55   55476623
      Casey               22   44443334
      Mawson              46   56554436

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        31
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             42   0345 3476     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    50    Storm Levels
10 Nov    29    Active
11 Nov    28    Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
at quiet to active levels across the Australian region during 
the UT day, 8 Nov. Minor to major storm conditions are expected 
for today, 9 Nov; then the geomagnetic activity is expected to 
decrease to active levels. The forecasted disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions are in response to the effects of the high speed solar 
wind streams associated with the recurrent northern hemisphere 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      Poor
10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Fair to poor HF conditions were observed for 8 Nov. 
Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next 3 UT days, 
9-11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   -20    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
11 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ 
region MUFs were depressed by 25%-30% as a consequence of the 
major geomagnetic storm occurred on 7-8 Nov. The MUFs are expected 
to be moderately depressed for 9 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:   19.3 p/cc  Temp:   194000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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