[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 8 10:30:27 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 Nov, with no 
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on 
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days (08-10 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 7 Nov. 
The solar wind speed and IMF Bt were steady up to 0130 UT, varying 
in the vicinity of 300 km/s and 6-7 nT, respectively. Then both 
the solar wind speed and IMF Bt increased in response to the 
effects of the recurrent northern polar coronal hole, their maximum 
values are 620 km/s and 20 nT, respectively. There were several 
prolonged periods with the negative Bz reaching values up to 
-13 nT. The outlook for today (8 Nov) is for the solar wind speed 
to remain at high to moderate levels in response to the effects 
of the recurrent northern polar coronal hole. During the previous 
rotation this coronal hole produced daily average solar winds 
in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive days. Similar effects 
are expected for this rotation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      22   13354443
      Cocos Island        18   13334443
      Darwin              16   13344333
      Townsville          19   13344443
      Learmonth           32   23355554
      Alice Springs       18   13344343
      Norfolk Island      13   03343332
      Culgoora            20   13354343
      Gingin              26   12255454
      Camden              20   13354343
      Canberra            20   13354343
      Launceston          28   13355454
      Hobart              20   13354343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    39   13565463
      Casey               26   26433344
      Mawson              53   24455576

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3   0000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    31    Active to Minor Storm
09 Nov    45    Minor Storm
10 Nov    28    Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for 7-8 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet 
to minor storm levels across the Australian region during the 
UT day, 7 Nov. Active to minor storm conditions are expected 
for the next two UT days, 8-9 Nov, with major storm levels likely. 
The forecasted disturbed geomagnetic conditions are in response 
to the effects of the corotating interaction region (CIR) associated 
with the northern hemisphere coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
09 Nov      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Fair HF conditions were observed for 7 Nov. Degraded 
HF conditions are also expected for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 
Nov, due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    -8    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
09 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
10 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for 8-10 Nov. Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ 
region MUFs were near predicted monthly values with minor enhancements 
in the Northern Australian Region during local night and minor 
depressions after local dawn. The three day outlook (8-10 Nov) 
is for the MUFs to be near predicted monthly values. Minor depressions 
are possible as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    10500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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