[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 7 10:30:18 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 Nov, with no 
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on 
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days (07-09 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 6 Nov. 
The solar wind speed decreased from 350 km/s at 06/0000 UT to 
280 km/s at 06/1915 UT. During the same time interval the IMF 
Bt was steady near 3-4 nT, with its Bz component fluctuating 
between -2 nT and +2 nT. Then both the solar wind speed and IMF 
Bt increased and reached 300-310 km/s and 7 nT, respectively. 
The outlook for today (7 Nov) is for the solar wind speed to 
increase up to moderate levels in response to the effects of 
the recurrent northern polar coronal hole, which is approaching 
geoeffective location on the solar disk. During the previous 
rotation this coronal hole produced daily average solar winds 
in excess of 500 km/s for at least 5 consecutive days. Similar 
or slightly weaker effect is expected for this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000001
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               0   10000001
      Townsville           1   10001001
      Learmonth            0   00000001
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Norfolk Island       1   1-000012
      Culgoora             1   10000011
      Gingin               0   00000001
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           0   00000001
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   22100001
      Mawson               5   41000012
      Davis                2   31000000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov    26    Active
08 Nov    28    Active
09 Nov    34    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for 7-8 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 6 Nov. 
Mostly active conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 
7-9 Nov, with minor storm levels likely. The forecasted disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions are in response to the effects of the 
anticipated corotating interaction region (CIR) associated with 
the northern hemisphere coronal hole taking geoeffective location 
on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
08 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
09 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed for 6 Nov. Degraded 
HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 Nov, due 
to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs 
were near predicted monthly values with minor depressions in 
the Southern Australian Region during local night. The three 
day outlook (7-9 Nov) is for the MUFs to be near predicted monthly 
values. Minor enhancements in MUFs are expected for today, 7 
Nov, in response to the forecasted active magnetic conditions 
associated with the coronal hole effects, then minor depressions 
are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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