[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 17 issued 2354 UT on 28 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 29 09:54:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 28 May, with
several B and C class flares. Largest Flare was a C3.3 X-ray
flare at 28/1928UT from active region 2659. Expect Very Low to
Low solar activity for the UT day 29 May and then a return to
Very Low activity on the following two days as AR2659 rotates
around the limb. No CMEs observed using LASCO imagery for 28
May up to 1736UT. Effects of CME observed on 23 May are waning.
Density of the solar wind is currently around 10 particles/cm^3,
temperature elevated near 100,000 K is beginning to decline and
the solar wind speed has ranged from 390 to 340 km/s during the
last 24 hours and is expected to remain in this ranged or slightly
below over the next 24 hours, currently 350km/s. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Btotal has gradually decreased from 20nT to its
current strength of 12nT over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
has gone from -20nT to +12nT with the transition occurring near
28/1440UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 21 45453210
Cocos Island 9 433-2100
Darwin 14 34343211
Townsville 22 45453211
Alice Springs 21 45453210
Culgoora 24 45553210
Gingin 20 54444210
Camden 24 45553210
Canberra 16 34453100
Launceston 34 45664211
Hobart 30 45564210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 60 36776410
Casey 11 44222211
Mawson 60 78443233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 1100 1436
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 4 Quiet
30 May 4 Quiet
31 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity hit severe storm levels (kp=7)
at 28/03-06UT interval and was at Storm levels of activity for
the first half of the UT day, 28 May, due to the prolonged negative
IMF Bz component (dipping to -20 nT), associated with a CME,
which lead to strong reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field.
As Bz returned to positive the geomagnetic activity subsided
and is currently at Quiet levels again. Expect geomagnetic activity
to remain at Quiet levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Periods over Hobart between 08-21UT showed no useable frequencies
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Periods over Antarctica between 08-21UT showed no useable frequencies
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 27 May
and is current for 28-29 May. Northern Australia and Cocos Island
had enhanced MUFs due to the timing of the geomagnetic storm.
The Southern Australia region had near predicted MUFs, however
ionograms from stations such as Antarctica and Hobart between
28/08-21UT showed no foF2 layer. Expect a return to near predicted
conditions as the geomagnetic storm wanes. Isolated periods of
Sporadic E was observed over the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 15500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list