[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 30 09:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 May, 
with several B-class flares. Expect Very Low solar activity for 
the next 3 UT days, 30 May - 1 June, as AR2659 rotates around 
the limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed using LASCO imagery 
for 29 May up to 2200UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 340 
to 470 km/s during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain 
in this range over the next 24 hours, currently at 420 km/s. 
Over the last 24 hours the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Btotal 
and its Bz component varied in the range 3-18 nT and +12/-13 
nT, respectively. There was a prolonged period with negative 
Bz, 29/1100-1425 UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   01124220
      Cocos Island         3   00122220
      Darwin               5   11123220
      Townsville           7   11124221
      Learmonth            9   01224330
      Alice Springs        5   11123220
      Culgoora             6   01024220
      Gingin               7   01124320
      Camden               8   1-134220
      Canberra             5   00024210
      Launceston          13   11135331
      Hobart               9   00035220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island    23   00047320
      Casey                6   12223220
      Mawson              11   11333332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             49   6765 4222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 May     7    Quiet
01 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was mostly 
Quiet and reached Active levels in the middle of the UT day, 
29 May, due to the prolonged period with negative IMF Bz component 
dipping to -13 nT. As Bz returned to positive, the geomagnetic 
activity subsided and is currently at Quiet levels again. Expect 
geomagnetic activity to remain at Quiet to Unsettled levels for 
30 May and at Quiet levels for 31 May - 1 June. Isolated Active 
periods can be observed on 30 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for 30 
May - 1 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    12    Near predicted monthly values
31 May    12    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region. Isolated periods of Sporadic E were also 
observed. Expect similar conditions during the next three UT 
days, 30 May - 1 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:    84400 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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