[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 17 issued 2346 UT on 27 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 28 09:46:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 27 May,
with several B-class flares from active region 2659. The largest
was a B9.2 peaking at 1830UT. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity
for the next two days. No CMEs observed using LASCO imagery for
27 May up to 2048UT. CME observed on 23 May was first observed
by the DSCOVR spacecraft at 27/1450UT. Initially the density
of the solar wind jump from ~5 to 23 particles/cm^3 and later
peaked at 70 particles/cm^3 at 27/2027UT. The solar wind speed
step up from ~300 to 365 km/s and later peaked at 385 km/s at
27/1827UT. Temperature jump by a factor of 10 from 20,000 to
100,000 K. Expect the solar wind speed to remain at these levels
for the first part of the UT day, 28 May, and then gradually
return to nominal levels. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Btotal
initially jump from ~3 to 10 nT and later peaked at 21 nT at
27/2049UT over the last 24 hours. The Bz component initially
dipped to -7 nT an then proceeded to -20 at minimum. The Phi
angle switch from toward to away from the Sun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 5 00000314
Cocos Island 4 10000313
Darwin 4 00100313
Townsville 7 11100324
Alice Springs 5 00000314
Culgoora 6 01000324
Gingin 5 11000224
Camden 5 01000214
Canberra 3 00000213
Launceston 5 00001224
Hobart 5 00001214
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00000013
Casey 5 12101213
Mawson 21 31000227
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 25 Active to Minor Storm
29 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 27 May and
is current for 28 May only. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels for the first part of the UT day, 27 May, and increased
to Active to Minor to Major levels due to the arrival of 23 May
CME. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain elevated for the first
part of the UT day, 28 May and then gradually return to Unsettled
to Quiet levels over the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate depressions with degraded HF communication
at higher latitudes possible today and tomorrow due arrival of
CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 27 May
and is current for 28-29 May. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs
with Minor depressions in the Northern Australian region during
local day hours observed for the UT day, 27 May. Expect Minor
to Moderate depressions with degraded HF communication at higher
latitudes possible today and tomorrow due arrival of CME and
then a return to near predicted MUFs on day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 12600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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