[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 27 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 May.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days.
CME observed on 23 May did not arrive on 26 May as expected based
on Enlil modelling, however is still expected to arrive today,
27 May. No CMEs observed using LASCO imagery for 26 May up to
1931UT. DSCOVR solar wind measurements showed a jump in solar
wind speed to near 800 km/s between 0027Ut and 0216UT with no
noted change in the IMF measurements, uncertain of the cause.
The solar wind speed decreased from 350 to near 310 km/s over
the last 20 hours. Expect the solar wind speed to remain at nominal
levels until expected arrival of CME, then expect a step up in
solar wind speed. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz component
fluctuated between +2/-3nT over the last 24 hours and B total
remained steady around 3-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10010000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11110010
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Culgoora 0 00010000
Gingin 1 10100010
Camden 2 11010200
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00010000
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12100011
Mawson 10 41111034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 25 Active
28 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 23 May and
is current for 26-27 May. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
for the UT day, 26 May. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain
at Quiet levels until expected arrival of CME today, 27 May,
when activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active
levels with isolated periods of Minor Storming.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected today.
Minor to Moderate depressions with degraded HF communication
at higher latitudes possible later in the day due to likely arrival
of CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 29 was issued
on 24 May and is current for 26-27 May. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs with Minor depressions in the Northern Australian
region during local day hours observed for the UT day, 26 May.
Expect near predicted monthly MUFs today in the Australian region
with a possibility of Minor to Moderated depressions later in
the UT day depending on the timing of the expected arrival of
the coronal mass ejection that is likely to hit the Earth.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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