[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 17 issued 2336 UT on 24 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu May 25 09:36:43 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 24 May. 
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days. 
LASCO C2 imagery showed a partial halo CME first observed on 
23/0536UT image, CME is likely to hit Earth on 26 May. The solar 
wind speed decreased from 525 to near 435 km/s over the last 
24 hours. Expect the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels 
until expected arrival of CME, then expect a step up in solar 
wind speed on 26 May. The north-south component of Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field Bz component fluctuated between +/-3nT, predominately 
negative, over the last 24 hours and B total was approximately 
3nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Cocos Island         1   10110000
      Darwin               1   01111001
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Alice Springs        1   01011000
      Culgoora             2   11111001
      Gingin               1   11111000
      Camden               2   11111100
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           2   11112100
      Hobart               2   11111100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   11121000
      Casey                6   33222100
      Mawson              13   43232133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2420 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     4    Quiet
26 May    40    Minor Storm
27 May    20    Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 23 May and 
is current for 26-27 May. Geomagnetic activity was at mostly 
Quiet levels for the UT day, 24 May. Expect geomagnetic activity 
to remain at Quiet levels today. During 26 May expect activity 
to increase from Quiet levels to Active levels with isolated 
periods of Minor Storming due to expected CME hitting the Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 May      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
27 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected today. 
On 26 May expect minor to moderate depressions late in the UT 
day due to likely arrival of CME.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 May     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    12    Near predicted monthly values
26 May     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
27 May     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 29 was issued 
on 24 May and is current for 26-27 May. Near predicted monthly 
MUFs observed for the UT day, 24 May. Expect near predicted monthly 
MUFs for the UT day, 25 May in the Australian region. On 26 May 
there may be Minor to Moderated depressions late in the UT day 
depending on the timing of the expected arrival of the coronal 
mass ejection that is likely to hit the Earth.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 522 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   345000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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