[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 17 issued 2332 UT on 23 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 24 09:32:35 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: YELLOW
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 May.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days.
LASCO C2 imagery shows a partial halo CME first observed on 23/0536UT
image, possibly associated with disappearing solar filament reported
by Learmonth and San Vito Solar Observatories. CME is likely
to hit Earth on 26 May, pending further analysis. The solar wind
speed decreased from 575 to near 500 km/s over the last 24 hours.
Expect the solar wind speed to gradually return to nominal levels
over the UT day as the effect of the negative polarity coronal
hole rotates out of geoeffective range. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +2/-4nT, predominately negative,
over the last 24 hours and B total was approximately 4 nT. On
26 May expect the solar wind to return to elevated levels due
to CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Cocos Island 4 12111121
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 5 22111122
Alice Springs 5 22111122
Culgoora 5 22111122
Gingin 6 12111232
Camden 4 22111121
Canberra 2 -2010011
Launceston 5 23111121
Hobart 4 22111121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 6 33112110
Casey 9 33212232
Mawson 33 25333266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2212 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 4 Quiet
25 May 4 Quiet
26 May 40 Minor to Major Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly Quiet levels for
the UT day, 23 May. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain at
Quiet levels over the next to two days. On day three expect Quiet
levels increasing to Active to Major Storm levels due to CME
hitting the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for the
next two days. On 26 May expect minor to moderate depressions
late in the UT day due to likely arrival of CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor depressions to near predicted monthly MUFs for
the UT day, 23 May. Expect near monthly MUFs for the next two
days in the Australian region and a possibility of Minor depressions
towards the Antarctic region. On 26 May there may be significant
depressions late in the day depending on the timing of the arrival
of the coronal mass ejection that is likely to hit the Earth.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 417000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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