[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 19 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The effect of the currently geoeffective positive polarity coronal
hole has further weakened. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from ~450 km/s to ~370 km/s by 18 UT and then showed
a slight increase to 410 km/s by 23 UT. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated mostly between +/-5nT, staying mostly
northwards during this day. Solar wind speed is expected to again
start rising on 19 May due to the possibility of a negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole taking a geoeffective position on this
day. The effect of this coronal hole may keep the solar wind
stream strengthened for three to four days. Very low levels of
solar activity with some possibility of isolated C-class event
may be expected for the next three days (19 to 21 May).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Mostly quiet
to unsettled with isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22300110
Cocos Island 2 22100110
Darwin 4 23200111
Townsville 7 33310111
Alice Springs 4 22300110
Culgoora 4 22300111
Gingin 3 22200010
Camden 4 22310110
Canberra 3 22300000
Launceston 6 22410110
Hobart 4 22310000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 8 22520000
Casey 7 22------
Mawson 19 46421112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2233 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 35 Quiet to unsettled during first half, and active
to minor storm during second half of the day
20 May 40 Active to minor storm, some major storm periods
possible
21 May 30 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed on 18 May with isolated active periods. A negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole is expected to take a geoeffective
position around the second half of the UT day 19 May. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet to unsettled levels
during the first half of the UT day 19 May and then increase
to active and possibly minor storm levels during the second half
of the day. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay enhanced
to active to minor storm levels with the possibility of some
major storm periods on 20 May and then gradually decrease to
active and then to unsettled levels through 21 May with some
possibility of isolated minor storm periods on 21 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
20 May Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
21 May Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions as well as enhancements
were observed today (18 May). MUFs and HF conditions are expected
to stay mostly at normal levels during first half of UT day 19
May. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradation in HF conditions
during the second half on 19 May, and minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 20 and 21
May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this
period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 May 0 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
21 May 0 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions as well as enhancements
were observed in the Aus regions today (18 May). MUFs and HF
conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels in this
region during first half of UT day 19 May. Minor to mild MUF
depressions and degradation in HF conditions during the second
half on 19 May, and minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NA regions on 20
and 21 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 14.4 p/cc Temp: 321000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list