[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 18 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The effect of the currently geoeffective positive polarity coronal
hole seems to be weakening. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s during the UT day today
(17 May). The IMF north-south component (Bz) fluctuated mostly
between +/-4nT during this day. Solar wind speed is expected
to further decrease on 18 May. A negative polarity recurrent
coronal hole is expected to take a geoeffective position from
late hours on 19 May. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days (18 to 20 May).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 6 11232221
Cocos Island 4 11121220
Darwin 7 22231221
Townsville 7 22232221
Alice Springs 6 11232221
Culgoora 5 11231211
Gingin 8 21242221
Camden 6 12232211
Canberra 4 01231111
Launceston 8 11242221
Hobart 8 11242221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 15 11363110
Casey 9 23231231
Mawson 22 33452235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3311 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 12 Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible
19 May 30 Mostly quiet to unsettled, active to minor storm
levels possible during late hours
20 May 45 Active to minor storm, some major storm periods
possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 16-18 May. Despite a strong solar wind stream,
geomagnetic conditions did not rise to the expected levels on
17 May as, Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not turn much south and did no show any sustained
periods of southward Bz values. As the effect of the currently
geoeffective coronal hole is waning, geomagnetic activity is
not expected to show much rise on 18 May and during most parts
of 19 May. Activity may again rise from late hours on 19 May
as a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective around that time. Some active to minor storm
levels of activity may be expected late on 19 May and throughout
20 May with the possibility of some major storm periods on 20
May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions as well as enhancements
were observed today (17 May). MUFs and HF conditions are expected
to stay mostly at normal levels on 18 May. Minor to mild MUF
depressions and degradation in HF conditions late on 19 May,
and minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be expected on 20 May due to an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity from late on 19 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 May 0 Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15 May
and is current for 16-18 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions as
well as enhancements were observed in the Aus regions today (17
May). MUFs and HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal
levels in this region on 18 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions
and degradation in HF conditions late on 19 May, and minor to
moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may
be expected on 20 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity from late on 19 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 432000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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