[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 17 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Due to the continued effect of a positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole, solar wind stream stayed strong today (UT day 16
May). The solar wind speed mostly varied between 570 and 670
km/s during the first half of this day. During the second half
of the day, solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease to ~550
km/s. The IMF north-south component (Bz) fluctuated mostly between
+/-4nT during this day. Solar wind speed is expected to stay
enhanced over the next 3 days due to the effect of the currently
geoeffective coronal hole and due to a possible effect of the
CME observed on 13 May. Very Low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three days (17 to 19 May).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22233100
Cocos Island 3 11212100
Darwin 4 22222100
Townsville 8 22333110
Alice Springs 6 22323100
Culgoora 6 12233101
Gingin 8 12333210
Camden 6 12233101
Canberra 4 11223100
Launceston 8 22234101
Hobart 6 21233100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 6 11133300
Casey 13 23423411
Mawson 25 44534225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 10 1224 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 30 Unsettled to minor storm, some major storm periods
possible
18 May 22 Mostly unsettled to active
19 May 15 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 16-18 May. Despite a strong solar wind stream,
geomagnetic conditions did not rise to the expected levels on
16 May as, Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not turn much south and did not show any sustained
periods of southward Bz. As the solar wind stream is still expected
to stay strong due to the currently in progress coronal hole
effect and due a possible glancing blow from the 13 May CME,
geomagnetic activity may rise to minor storm levels on 17 May
with some possibility of major storm periods. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to gradually decline to lower levels on the following
two days (18 and 19 May).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
18 May Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in the low-
and mid-latitude regions today (16 May). Minor to mild MUF enhancements
were observed in the mid- to high-latitude regions on this day.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected from 17 to 18 May due to expected continued rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. MUFs and HF conditions
are expected to gradually recover to mostly normal levels on
19 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 0 Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
18 May 5 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15 May
and is current for 16-18 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions were
observed in the northern and central parts of Aus regions today
(16 May). Minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed in the
Southern Aus regions on this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected in this region
from 17 to 18 May due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. MUFs and HF conditions are expected
to gradually recover to mostly normal levels in this region on
19 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 16.0 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list