[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 17 issued 2336 UT on 15 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 16 09:36:50 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity. The faint partial halo CME observed 
on 13 May may have an earthward directed component. The solar 
wind speed increased gradually from ~380km/s to ~600km/s during 
the UT day today (15 May). It shows the arrival of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole. The IMF north-south component (Bz) fluctuated mostly between 
+/-12nT during this day. Solar wind speed is expected to stay 
enhanced over the next 3 days due to the effect of the coronal 
hole and due to a possible effect of the CME observed on 13 May. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days (16 to 18 May).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   02241222
      Cocos Island        10   12251122
      Darwin               8   12241122
      Townsville           9   12341222
      Alice Springs        9   02341222
      Culgoora             8   02241222
      Gingin              10   02342223
      Camden               8   12241222
      Canberra             4   01230112
      Launceston          10   02342223
      Hobart               6   01231123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
      Macquarie Island    11   00353112
      Casey                9   02241133
      Mawson              34   13343375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   2113 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May    22    Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible
17 May    30    Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods 
                possible
18 May    22    Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 15 May and 
is current for 15-17 May. Geomagnetic conditions went up from 
Quiet levels to Active levels on 15 May due to the arrival of 
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Unsettled 
to Minor levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 16 
and 18 May. Active to minor storm conditions with some possibility 
of isolated major storm periods may by possible on 17 May due 
a possible geoeffective component of a CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Fair-poor
17 May      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor
18 May      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today (15 
May). Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF 
conditions may be expected from 16 to 18 May due to expected 
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May   -10    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 May   -15    Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
18 May   -10    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 26 was issued 
on 15 May and is current for 15-17 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
were observed in Aus/NZ regions today (15 May). Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected 
in this region from 16 to 18 May due to expected continued rise 
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 317 km/sec  Density:   17.8 p/cc  Temp:    24100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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