[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 May 17 issued 2353 UT on 14 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 15 09:53:03 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. A faint partial halo CME extending
out from the south pole region of the sun is visible in LASCO
C2 imagery from 13May 22UT onwards and further analysis is required
to confirm the origin of this event and whether if it will be
geoeffective. The solar wind speed increased gradually from ~300km/s
at 00UT to be ~360km/s at the time of this report. The IMF north-south
component (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4nT between 00UT-10UT after
which it increased in magnitude to range between +/-7nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to increase over the next 24 hours with
the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity,
equatorially located coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days with the chance of C-class
flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22133111
Cocos Island 7 22132122
Darwin 10 32233222
Townsville 10 32233222
Alice Springs 7 22133121
Culgoora 6 21133111
Gingin 6 21133111
Camden 7 22133111
Canberra 4 11122111
Launceston 8 22233212
Hobart 6 22123111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 6 11233111
Casey 5 22222111
Mawson 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0201 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 14 Unsettled to Active
16 May 24 Active
17 May 24 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected for 15May
with the anticipated onset of a high speed solar wind stream
from a positive polarity, equatorially located coronal hole.
Active conditions with possible Minor Storm periods expected
for 16May to 17May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
16 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
17 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with minor MUF depressions
in low and mid-latitude regions observed for 14May. Depressed
MUFs for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for
high latitudes expected for the next 3 days due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 May -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 May -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 14May with depressed
MUFs for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ stations
during local day and near predicted monthly values during local
night. MUFs near predicted monthly values for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for local day 15May after which
notable MUF depressions for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
are expected due to increased geomagnetic activity from coronal
hole effects. Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue into
16May-17May resulting in depressed MUF's of 10%-30% for Northern
AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions with poor ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 14.5 p/cc Temp: 17100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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