[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 May 17 issued 2336 UT on 13 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun May 14 09:36:09 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed declined 
from ~350km/s at 00UT to be 311km/s at the time of this report. 
The IMF north-south component (Bz) fluctuated between +/-2nT 
over the UT day. Solar wind parameters are currently at ambient 
levels and should remain so for the next 24-36 hours. An increase 
in solar wind speed is expected on 15May-16May with the onset 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity, equatorially 
located coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three days with the chance of C-class flare activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Alice Springs        3   12110111
      Culgoora             2   12010111
      Gingin               2   01110111
      Camden               3   12110111
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Launceston           4   12121111
      Hobart               2   01120111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000010
      Casey                3   12210210
      Mawson              20   24330155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2122 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May     5    Quiet
15 May    12    Unsettled
16 May    16    Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar 
conditions are expected for 14May. The onset of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a positive polarity, equatorially located 
coronal hole is expected in the latter half of 15May. Quiet to 
Unsettled with isolated Active periods forecast for 15May and 
Active conditions for 16May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
16 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with minor MUF depressions 
in low and mid-latitude regions observed for 13May. Similar conditions 
are expected for 14May. Depressed MUFs for mid latitudes and 
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes for the 15May-16May 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 May     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
15 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 May   -10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 13May with depressed 
MUFs for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ stations 
during local day and near predicted monthly values during local 
night. MUFs near predicted monthly values for Antarctic regions. 
Similar conditions are expected for 14May. Notable MUF depressions 
are expected for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions 15May-16May 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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