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Sat May 13 11:07:36 EST 2017


magentic field Bz was southward during this time with a maximum 
of -40nT. Bz has since returned back to neutral at the time of 
this report. Aurora's have been reported in areas such as Siding 
Springs Observatory in Coonabarabran NSW. Another bright significant 
region is approaching the southeast limb and should roate on 
disc within the next 2 days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels


Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      53   7655 4335
      Darwin              43   6655 3335
      Townsville          52   6666 4235
      Learmonth           57   7665 4335
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            69   77-6 4335
      Hobart              57   7--- 5345
      Casey(Ant)          37   6545 3345
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 NOV : 
      Townsville         101   (Major storm)
      Learmonth          126   (Severe storm)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg       130
           Planetary            190                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             39   1213 3567     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    50    Storm levels 
10 Nov    30    Active to Minor storm 
11 Nov    16    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Geomagnetic activity 
was Quiet to Severe Storm levels over the last 24 hours in 
association with strongly southward BZ. A major shock arrival
is expected on 09Nov from the X2 event and should result in
Severe Storm conditions. Another minor shock is exprected to
arrive 10Nov from the C7.9 event that occured in the last 24hrs. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be depressed for the next 
24-36 hours due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions and 
expected CME shock arrival. Trans-polar communications will be 
affected by the proton event in progress. Fair conditions expected 
for Mid to High latitudes and Poor conditions for Low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov    20    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov    30    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Disturbed ionospheric
conditions were observed over the last 24hours with highly variable
MUF's and ionospheric heights. Depressed HF conditions forecast for
the next 24-36hrs due to the anticipated arrival of 07Nova X2.0 class
flare's shock fronts. A proton event is also still in progress and
will affect transpolar communications. Depressed conditions expected
for all Aus/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:   13.1 p/cc  Temp:    62300 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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