[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 17 issued 0002 UT on 20 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 20 10:02:10 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The effect of the negative polarity coronal hole seems to have 
started. The solar wind speed stayed between ~420 km/s and ~470 
km/s by 18 UT and then showed a relatively rapid rise to ~630 
km/s by 22 UT and it is staying around 630 km/s since then. The 
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated mostly between +6/-5nT 
during this day. Solar wind stream is expected to stay strong 
for the next two to three days due to the effect of this coronal 
hole. Very low levels of solar activity with some possibility 
of isolated C-class event may be expected for the next three 
days (20 to 22 May).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 19 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   13313332
      Cocos Island        10   13312332
      Darwin               9   13302332
      Townsville          10   23313232
      Alice Springs        9   13302332
      Culgoora             9   13302332
      Gingin              12   12203443
      Camden              10   12313332
      Canberra             6   02202331
      Launceston          14   14313432
      Hobart              10   12213432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
      Macquarie Island    15   01214542
      Casey               10   --212333
      Mawson              39   24423575

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             13   4442 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May    35    Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm 
                periods possible
21 May    30    Active to minor Storm
22 May    20    Unsettled to active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 19 May and 
is current for 19-21 May. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of 
geomagnetic activity were observed on 19 May with isolated active 
periods. A negative polarity recurrent coronal hole seems to 
have taken a geoeffective position now. Geomagnetic activity 
may rise from unsettled to active and then minor storm levels 
on 20 May with some possibility of isolated major storm periods 
on this day. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay enhanced 
to active to minor storm levels on 21 May and then gradually 
decrease to active and then to unsettled levels through 22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
21 May      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
22 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions as well as enhancements 
were observed today (UT day 19 May). Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
and degradation in HF conditions may be expected on 20 and 21 
May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this 
period. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradation in HF conditions 
may be expected on 22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May     0    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
21 May     0    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
22 May     5    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 28 was issued 
on 19 May and is current for 19-21 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
as well as enhancements were observed in the Aus regions today 
(UT day 19 May). Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradation in 
HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions on 20 and 
21 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during 
this period. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradation in 
HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions on 22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    40800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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