[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 30 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 March.
Active regions 2645(S10E37) and 2644(N12W05) continue to subflare,
expect Very Low to Low solar activity with a slight chance for
M-class flares over the next three days. No Earthward CMEs observed
during the UT day, based on SOHO LASCO imagery up to 29/1936UT.
The solar wind speed remains elevated, ranging from 730 to 600
km/s due to a high speed stream associated with a recurrent coronal
hole. The IMF Bt remained constant over the last 24 hours at
approximately 5nT. The IMF Bz component varied between +/-5 nT.
The solar wind stream is expected to remain elevated for the
next couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22332322
Cocos Island 7 22122321
Darwin 9 22232322
Townsville 10 22332322
Learmonth 12 32333322
Alice Springs 10 22332322
Norfolk Island 10 22332322
Culgoora 10 22332322
Gingin 13 22333432
Canberra 9 22332321
Launceston 17 33443422
Hobart 16 23443422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 37 33656521
Casey 20 45432323
Mawson 47 45443736
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 29 6534 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 25 Active
31 Mar 20 Active
01 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The Earth is currently under the influence of very strong
solar wind streams from a large coronal hole. Magnetic activity
was Quiet to Active across the Australian region and reached
Major Storm levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 29 March.
Solar winds associated with the coronal hole are still at elevated
levels. Under such conditions,a prolonged southward IMF Bz could
lead to more disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to range mostly from Unsettled to Active levels
and occasionally may reach Minor Storm levels in the high latitude
regions over the next two days(30-31 March).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are likely in high latitude regions during the
next three UT days due to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity
associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs in the Northern Australian
region and minor depressions observed in the southern Australian
region. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values across the
Australia with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible,
particularly over the more southern areas of Australian for the
next 3 days due to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 689 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 460000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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