[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 17 issued 2332 UT on 28 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 29 10:32:34 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity has increased over the the last 24 hours,with
several B- and C-class flares emanating from both active regions
2645(S09E44) and 2644(N13E17). Region 2644 has a beta-gamma magnetic
class, it is expected to continue to produce C class x-ray flares
with a slight chance of an M class flare over the next three
days. The two other active regions on the visible disk show simple
magnetic complexity and are not expected to produce any significant
flares at this time. A number of narrow CMEs have been detected
over the past 24 hours, they will not affect Earth. The solar
wind speed was high, ~ 700km/s, due to a high speed stream associated
with the recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Bt decreased over the
last 24 hours, starting at around 8 nT and currently around 4
nT. The Bz component reached a minimum of -7 nT at 0004UT but
varied for most of the day between +/-5 nT. The effect of the
coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 43353222
Cocos Island 10 33133221
Darwin 12 33243222
Townsville 17 43353222
Learmonth 19 43254232
Alice Springs 15 33253222
Norfolk Island 15 33353122
Culgoora 17 43353222
Gingin 20 43254332
Canberra 13 33343222
Launceston 26 44463332
Hobart 20 44353232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 42 44476332
Casey 25 45444333
Mawson 56 56553475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 66 (Active)
Canberra 87 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 34
Planetary 52 2555 5674
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 30 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor Storm.
30 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
31 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The Earth is currently under the influence of very strong
solar wind streams from a large coronal hole. Magnetic activity
was Quiet to Minor Storm across the Australian region and reached
Major Storm levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 28 March.
Solar winds associated with the coronal hole are still at elevated
levels. Under such conditions,a prolonged southward IMF Bz could
lead to more disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to range mostly from Unsettled to Active levels
and occasionally may reach Minor Storm levels in the high latitude
regions over the next two days(29-30 March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
30 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
31 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are likely in high latitude regions during the
next three UT days due to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity
associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions observed across the
Australian region during UT day 28 March. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely during
29-31 March due to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity
associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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