[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 17 issued 2343 UT on 27 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 28 10:43:38 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 83/24 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels during the UT day 27
March. Newly numbered region 2645 (S09E59) produced 3 C-class
flares, the largest was a C5 event observed at 1820UT. There
are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 UT days
(28-30 March) with a slight chance of M-class activity. No earthward
directed CME was observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind parameters were enhanced in response to anticipated
high speed streams emanating from a relatively large negative
polarity coronal hole. A significant increase in the solar wind
speed was observed, its maximum value was 720km/s ~2010UT. A
CIR ahead of this stream was observed since 0200 UT as an increase
in the interplanetary magnetic field; Bt reached its maximum
value of 19 nT and Bz reached its minimum value of -14 nT around
0800UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during
the next 3 days, under the influence of the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 26 23454453
Cocos Island 16 23343342
Darwin 19 23443442
Townsville 24 23454443
Learmonth 32 23455553
Alice Springs 29 23454553
Norfolk Island 21 23353443
Culgoora 26 23454453
Gingin 25 23344553
Canberra 20 23344443
Launceston 39 24465554
Hobart 33 24455553
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 76 25568664
Casey 29 34443364
Mawson 86 35554496
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 59
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 40 Active to Minor Storm
29 Mar 30 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor Storm
periods.
30 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 25 March and
is current for 27-28 Mar. Geomagnetic activity reached Minor
Storm levels across the Australian region and Major Storm levels
in the Antarctic region due to the effect of the high speed solar
wind stream from a negative polarity recurrent coronal hole.
The Australia DST index dipped to a minimum of approximately
-120 nT ~1000UT following the period of significant southward
IMF Bz. Similar conditions are likely today, 28 March, then geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decrease to Unsettled to Active
levels on 29-30 March, occasionally reaching Minor Storm levels
associated with the high speed solar wind streams emanating from
the coronal hole. There is a chance that auroras may be visible
tonight, 28 March in Tasmania and possibly from the coastline
of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
29 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
30 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are likely in high latitude regions during the
next three UT days due to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity
associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued
on 25 March and is current for 27-28 Mar. MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian regions during
UT day 27 March with minor to moderate MUF depressions. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are likely during 28-30 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 23000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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