[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 31 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 87/30 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 March.
Active regions 2645(S10E23) and 2644(N12W16) continue to produce
B-class flares, expect Very Low to Low solar activity with a
slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days. No
Earthward CMEs observed in available SOHO LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed remains elevated, ranging from 600-680 km/s
due to a high speed stream associated with a recurrent coronal
hole. The IMF Bt remained constant over the last 24 hours at
approximately 5nT. The IMF Bz component varied between +/-5 nT.
The solar wind stream is expected to remain elevated for the
next couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 23223333
Cocos Island 9 22213332
Darwin 10 22223323
Townsville 13 23323333
Learmonth 15 23224343
Alice Springs 11 22223333
Norfolk Island 10 23223223
Culgoora 12 23223333
Gingin 13 22214343
Canberra 10 22213333
Launceston 17 33324433
Hobart 14 23324333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 22 34325443
Casey 19 34433343
Mawson 87 56633786
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 4443 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 25 Active
01 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The Earth is still under the influence of Strong solar
wind streams from a large coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Unsettled with some isolated Active periods across
the Australian region on UT day 30 March. Solar winds associated
with the coronal hole are still at elevated levels. Under such
conditions,a prolonged southward IMF Bz could lead to more disturbed
geomagnetic conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
range mostly from Unsettled to Active levels and occasionally
may reach Minor Storm levels in the high latitude regions over
the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australia
with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible, particularly
over the more southern areas of Australian for the next 2 days
due to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near
predicted monthly values for the last 24 hours with enhanced
MUFs for the Equatorial regions. Periods of sporadic E observed
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Australia with periods
of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible, particularly over
the more southern areas of Australian for the next 2 days due
to the ongoing enhanced geomagnetic activity. Expect periods
of sporadic E to continue in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 370000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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