[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 26 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (25 March, UT).
As anticipated, the effect of the recurrent coronal hole is showing
further weakening. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
~~600 km/s to ~540 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south
component of the IMF, Bz was more stable and varied mostly between
+/-3 nT during the day. The effect of this coronal hole is expected
to further weaken during the next 24 hours. The effect of another
recurrent coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar wind
stream from late on 27 March. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next 3 days (26 to 28 March) with a slight
chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 01011001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11011001
Townsville 2 11021001
Learmonth 1 01011000
Alice Springs 1 01011001
Norfolk Island 2 11020001
Culgoora 1 11011001
Gingin 0 00011000
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 2 01121001
Hobart 1 01021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 6 23311101
Mawson 6 23111113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2210 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 20 Quiet active, isolated minor storm periods possible
28 Mar 30 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind
stream from the positive polarity recurrent coronal hole has
shown weakening through the UT day today (25 March). Despite
the solar wind speed still being high above 500 km/s, geomagnetic
activity did not rise to the expected levels as the north-south
component of IMF, Bz did not turn negative enough. Solar wind
speed still being high (>500 km/s), there is potential for geomagnetic
activity levels to rise to unsettled levels on 26 March, if Bz
turns sufficiently southwards and for sufficiently long intervals
of time. Due to the effect of another recurrent negative polarity
coronal hole, geomagnetic activity is again expected to rise
from late hours on 27 March to active levels with a small possibility
of some minor storm periods late on this day. Active to minor
storm levels of activity are expected on 28 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(25 March, UT) with some periods of minor to mild enhancements
in the equatorial regions and mid latitude regions. Nearly similar
HF conditions are expected on 26 March. Due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels from late on 27 March, minor to
mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are possible
on this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are likely on 28 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 22 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near
predicted monthly values today (25 March, UT) with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements in the equatorial regions and minor
to mild depressions in the Norther regions. Nearly similar HF
conditions are expected on 26 March in this region. Due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels from late on 27 March, minor
to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are
possible on this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are likely on 28 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 309000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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