[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 23 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (22 March, UT).
As anticipated, the effect of the recurrent coronal hole is continuing
to keep the solar wind stream strong. The solar wind speed stayed
around 700 km/s during most parts of the UT day today. The north-south
component of the IMF, Bz ranged mostly between +/-8 nT and Bt
varied between 8 and 12 nT. The effect of this coronal hole is
expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next two
to three days. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 days (23 to 25 March) with a slight chance of
C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Mostly unsettled
to active
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 33343332
Cocos Island 10 32222332
Darwin 13 23333332
Townsville 17 33344332
Learmonth 16 33334333
Alice Springs 13 23333332
Norfolk Island 14 33342332
Culgoora 14 23343332
Gingin 21 33344443
Canberra 17 25243332
Launceston 25 34354443
Hobart 21 23354442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 33 34365542
Casey 24 45533333
Mawson 40 44433457
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24 1342 3644
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 22 Unsettled to active, some minor storm periods
possible
24 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 21 March and
is current for 22-23 Mar. As anticipated, the effect of the high
speed solar wind stream from the positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole has been keeping the geomagnetic activity enhanced.
Geomagnetic activity rose up to active levels in Aus/NZ regions.
Some minor storm periods were recorded on high latitudes. The
effect of this coronal hole is expected to continue to keep the
geomagnetic activity high up to minor storm levels on 23 March.
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decrease to
unsettled to active levels on 24 March and further down to quiet
to unsettled levels on 25 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
24 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(22 March, UT) with some periods of minor depressions on mid
latitudes. Minor MUF enhancements were also observed at times
in some mid latitude regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are expected on 23 and 24 March
due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days. HF conditions are expected to return to mostly
normal levels by 25 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Mar 12 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 21 March
and is current for 22-23 Mar. MUFs across the Australian/NZ region
were mostly near predicted monthly values today (22 March, UT)
with some periods of minor depressions in some northern and southern
regions. Minor MUF enhancements were also observed at times in
the northern regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are expected in the Australian/NZ regions on
23 and 24 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. HF conditions are expected to
return to mostly normal levels by 25 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 11.9 p/cc Temp: 357000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list