[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 22 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (21 March, UT).
The previously anticipated effect of the recurrent coronal hole
started strengthening the solar wind stream about half a day
earlier than expected. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
increase from ~350 km/s to ~700 km/s during the day. The north-south
component of the IMF, Bz ranged mostly between +/-11 nT and Bt
rose up to ~18 nT. The effect of this coronal hole is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next three days.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3
days (22 to 24 March) with a slight chance of C-class activity.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
21/1115UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 13323443
Cocos Island 12 13322342
Darwin 13 23323333
Townsville 14 23323433
Learmonth 17 23333443
Alice Springs 15 13323443
Norfolk Island 11 13323332
Culgoora 14 13323433
Gingin 14 22322443
Canberra 9 12312332
Launceston 21 23423544
Hobart 15 13313443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 25 13434642
Casey 21 34532334
Mawson 25 14444453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 22 Unsettled to minor storm
23 Mar 22 Unsettled to minor storm
24 Mar 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 20 March and
is current for 22-23 Mar. The previously anticipated effect of
the high speed solar wind stream from the positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole started about half a day earlier than expected.
This resulted in a rise in geomagnetic activity up to active
levels in Aus/NZ regions and up to minor storm levels on some
high latitude locations. The effect of this coronal hole is expected
to continue to keep the geomagnetic activity high up to minor
storm levels on 22 and 23 March. Geomagnetic activity is then
expected to gradually decrease to unsettled to active levels
on 24 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(21 March, UT) with some periods of minor depressions in some
mid and high latitude regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are expected on 22 and 23 March
due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days. Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions are likely on 24 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Mar 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Mar 5 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 19 was issued
on 20 March and is current for 22-23 Mar. MUFs across the Australian/NZ
region were mostly near predicted monthly values today (21 March,
UT) with some periods of minor depressions in Central and Southern
regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in the Australian/NZ regions on 22
and 23 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions are likely in the region on 24 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 23200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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