[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 9 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (9-11 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class
flares. The solar wind speeds remained elevated. They started
the UT day around 550 km/s, then gradually declined to around
505 km/s. Around 08/1500 UT, the wind speeds started to increase,
levelling off at around 550 km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum
around 6 nT and is currently around 4 nT. The Bz component varied
between -5 nT and +5 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue
to decline during 9-11 Mar but will remain above nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 21122233
Cocos Island 6 21121232
Darwin 9 31122233
Townsville 9 31122233
Learmonth 11 31123333
Alice Springs 8 21122233
Norfolk Island 5 21122122
Culgoora 8 21122233
Gingin 15 31123353
Canberra 6 20122132
Launceston 11 32133233
Hobart 9 21123233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 20145232
Casey 18 43433243
Mawson 55 54332386
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 3433 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 7 Quiet
11 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 8 Mar was at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Active to Storm
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 9 Mar and
mostly Quiet on 10-11 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the
ongoing unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with the
coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
10 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Northern Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for most of the UT day 8 Mar with minor
depressions during the local night. MUFs in the Southern Australian
and Antarctic regions experienced minor depressions during the
UT day. The Niue Island Region had severely depressed MUFs during
the local night. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
over most of the Australian region during the next UT day (9
Mar). Minor to moderate depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are expected in the Southern Australian and Antarctic regions
due to the recent unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Conditions
are expected to return to near predicted monthly values on 10
Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 299000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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