[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 17 issued 2342 UT on 09 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 10 10:42:32 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (10-12 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class
flares. The solar wind speeds remain above nominal levels. They
peaked at 580 km/s at 09/0050 UT then continued to decline and
are currently around 500 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 1-6
nT and is currently around 4 nT. The Bz component varied between
-4 nT and +3 nT and had periods of sustained southward direction.
Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline during
10-12 Mar but will remain above nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22133221
Cocos Island 6 22123121
Darwin 6 22123211
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 7 22123222
Alice Springs 7 22133211
Norfolk Island 7 22232211
Culgoora 8 22233211
Gingin 12 32134232
Canberra 7 22133211
Launceston 14 32244322
Hobart 9 32233211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 21 32455321
Casey 13 34333222
Mawson 57 65444476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3112 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 9 Mar was at Quiet to Unsettled levels with isolated
Active periods. Active to Storm periods were observed in the
Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at
Quiet to Unsettled levels on 10-11 Mar and mostly Quiet on 12
Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the
recent unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with elevated
solar wind speeds.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
11 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across most of the Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for the UT day 9 Mar. MUFs in the Northern
Australian region experienced minor depressions during the local
night while the Antarctic region experienced minor depressions
during the UT day. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
over the Australian region during the next UT day (10 Mar). Higher
latitudes may still experience minor to moderate depressions
and degradations in HF conditions due to the recent unsettled
geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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