[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 8 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (8-10 March) with a slight chance for
C-class flares. The solar wind speeds remained elevated, fluctuating
between 560 and 670 km/s. The wind speeds started a gradual decline
at 07/1500 UT and are currently around 550 km/s. The IMF Bt varied
between 4-6 nT and is currently around 6 nT. The Bz component
varied between -5nT and +6 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue to decline during 8-10 March but will remain above
nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22223232
Cocos Island 7 21222322
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 9 22223232
Learmonth 12 32223333
Alice Springs 9 22223232
Norfolk Island 7 22213222
Culgoora 9 22223232
Gingin 12 32223333
Canberra 7 21213222
Launceston 13 32324233
Hobart 11 32323232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 17 23335332
Casey 21 44533332
Mawson 42 34543566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 4314 4353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 7 March was at Quiet to Unsettled levels with an isolated
Active period in the southern latitudes. Active to Storm periods
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels for 8-9 March
and Quiet on 10 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the
ongoing unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with the
coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
09 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
10 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Northern Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for most of the UT day 7 March with
minor depressions during the local night. MUFs in the Southern
Australian region experienced minor depressions during the local
day and moderate depressions during the local night. Mostly near
predicted monthly MUFs are expected over most of the Australian
region with minor to moderate depressions expected in the Southern
Australian region during the next two UT days (8-9 March) due
to the recent unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Conditions are
expected to return to near predicted monthly values on 10 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 613 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 304000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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