[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 5 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 4 March. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next 3 UT days (5-7 March) with a chance for C-class flares.
No earthward directed CME was observed in the available LASCO
imagery on UT day 4 March. The solar wind speeds are still at
very high levels, however is showing signs of weakening. The
solar wind speeds decreased gradually from ~700 km/s at the beginning
of the UT day to ~620 km/s by the end of the UT day. The disturbed
solar wind conditions are in response to the high speed streams
emanating from a recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Bt was steady
near 5 nT throughout the UT day. The Bz component varied between
-5 nT and +5 nT, with only short-lived episodes of significant
southward component. The two day outlook (5-6 March) is for the
solar winds to continue to trend towards nominal levels as the
coronal hole effects begin to wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 33233223
Cocos Island 8 22122323
Darwin 12 33233313
Townsville 12 33233223
Learmonth 13 33233323
Alice Springs 11 33233213
Norfolk Island 10 33232213
Culgoora 12 33233223
Gingin 12 23233224
Canberra 10 33232213
Launceston 15 33343323
Hobart 13 33243223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 40 35475423
Casey 22 44543323
Mawson 52 55543557
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19 3444 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 4 March was predominantly at unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods were observed in Southern Australian Region due
to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. The Australian Dst index reached -45 nT at ~04/0500
UT. The two day outlook (5-6 March) for geomagnetic conditions
to be mostly at unsettled levels and occasionally reaching active
levels as the high speed solar wind streams are expected to persist
for a while. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to decrease
to mostly quiet levels from 7 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the
ongoing unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with the
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 4 March. Weakly depressed to near
monthly predicted MUFs are expected during the next three day
(5-7 March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 699 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 463000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list