[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 4 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 3 March. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next 3 UT days (4-6 March) with a chance for C-class flares.
No earthward directed CME was observed in the available LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed was high, 620-740 km/s, due to
a high speed stream associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
On average the speed was gradually decreasing since 1115 UT,
currently at 620 km/s. The IMF Bt and its Bz component stayed
in the ranges 4-7 nT and -5/+6 nT, respectively, with prolonged
periods with negative Bz. During the next 24 h the solar wind
speed is expected to decrease gradually but it will remain enhanced.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 23333321
Cocos Island 8 22332310
Darwin 11 23333311
Townsville 11 23333321
Learmonth 14 33333421
Alice Springs 11 23333311
Norfolk Island 8 23332210
Culgoora 10 23333221
Gingin 15 33334421
Canberra 7 23322210
Launceston 17 34443322
Hobart 14 24433321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 46 24666631
Casey 22 45434332
Mawson 27 45544431
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 29 5544 4242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 17 Unsettled to Active
05 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 3 March and
is current for 4 Mar only. Across the Australian region on UT
day 3 March geomagnetic activity was predominantly at unsettled
levels. Isolated active periods we observed in Southern Australian
Region due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. The Australian Dst index reached
-70 nT at 1015 UT approximately. Quiet conditions were observed
during the last 6 hours of the UT day. Isolated periods with
active levels can be observed during 4 March as well, then geomagnetic
activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on 5-6
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degradations in HF conditions were observed on 3 March
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely during
the next UT day, 4 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
05 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 2 March
and is current for 3-4 Mar. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values during UT day 3 March across the Australian region. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions are likely during 4 March as a consequence
of the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 698 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 458000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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