[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 6 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 5 March. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next 3 UT days (6-8 March) with a slight chance for C-class
flares. No earthward directed CME was observed in the available
LASCO imagery on UT day 5 March. The solar wind speeds are still
at very high levels, 610-670 km/s; however, it is showing signs
of weakening, currently at 630 km/s. The disturbed solar wind
conditions are in response to the high speed streams emanating
from a recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT
throughout the UT day. The Bz component varied between -5 nT
and +5 nT, with only short-lived episodes of significant southward
component. During the next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected
to decrease gradually but it will remain enhanced.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 21223232
Cocos Island 8 21222332
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 12 21423233
Learmonth 10 22223332
Alice Springs 8 21223232
Norfolk Island 6 11222222
Culgoora 10 11323233
Gingin 12 32223342
Canberra 7 11222232
Launceston 13 22333333
Hobart 12 22333233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 18 32345332
Casey 20 35433333
Mawson 55 34544667
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 81 (Minor storm)
Canberra 79 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4533 2324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 12 Unsettled
07 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 5 March was at quiet to unsettled levels. Active to
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The two
day outlook (6-7 March) for geomagnetic conditions to be mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian region. The geomagnetic
conditions are expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
8 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the
ongoing unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with the
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Mar 12 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian region were mostly depressed
by 20%-35% during UT day 5 March. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected during the next three days (6-8 March). Minor
depressions are likely during the UT day 6 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 680 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 430000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list