[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 19 09:30:24 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 June. 
There are currently two sunspot groups on the Sun. Very Low solar 
activity is expected for the next 3 UT days with a slight chance 
of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery up to 17/1548UT. The solar wind speed 
remains elevated due to negative polarity CH HSS. The solar wind 
speed ranged between 640 and 540 km/s over the last 24 hours 
and is currently ~540 km/s. The B total interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between 4 and 7 nT, while the Bz component varied 
between +7/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually 
decline to nominal levels over the UT day, 19 June as the influence 
of the coronal hole wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233121
      Cocos Island         3   11222010
      Darwin               7   22223121
      Townsville           8   22233121
      Learmonth            9   22233231
      Alice Springs        7   22223121
      Norfolk Island       5   22222111
      Culgoora             7   22233111
      Gingin              10   32233131
      Camden               8   22233211
      Canberra             4   22122110
      Launceston          11   32243221
      Hobart               7   22233111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    18   33255211
      Casey               12   34233222
      Mawson              52   75453365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              64   (Active)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   4422 2244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     6    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun     4    Quiet
21 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels across the Australian region. Expect a gradual return 
to mostly quiet conditions over the next 24 hours with isolated 
periods of Unsettled levels particularly at higher latitudes 
as coronal hole influence wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Isolated periods of degraded HF conditions possible 
at higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day, 18 June. Isolated periods of 
Spread F observed in the Australian region. Expect a return to 
near predicted monthly MUF values over the next three days with 
possible isolated periods of degradation at higher latitudes 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list