[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 17 issued 2352 UT on 17 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 18 09:52:03 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 June.
There are currently two sunspot groups on the Sun. Very Low solar
activity is expected for the next 3 UT days with a slight chance
of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 17/1724UT. However a CME was first
observed at 17/0748UT on the west limb. STEREO A imagery indicated
it was due to farside activity. San Vito solar observatory reported
a 10 degree disappearing solar filament near active region 2662
(N11E16) between 1239-1358UT. The solar wind speed remains elevated
due to negative polarity CH HSS. The solar wind speed ranged
between 570 and 425 km/s over the last 24 hours, currently ~550
km/s. The B total IMF ranged between 4 and 9 nT, while the Bz
component varied between +8/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over the UT day, 18 June and then gradually
return to nominal levels over the following two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 23122232
Cocos Island 8 23122232
Darwin 8 23122232
Townsville 10 33222232
Learmonth 13 33122343
Alice Springs 8 23122232
Norfolk Island 7 23122222
Culgoora 8 23122232
Gingin 12 33122342
Camden 9 33122232
Canberra 6 23111222
Launceston 11 33122333
Hobart 8 23122232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 33034213
Casey 12 33222243
Mawson 50 56243276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 2243 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 12 Unsettled to Active
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels across
the Australian region. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions for
the next 24 hours with isolated periods of Active levels particularly
at higher latitudes due to coronal hole associated influence.
On 19 June expect geomagnetic to gradually return to Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF condition in the high-latitude regions may
be observed due to increase in the geomagnetic activity over
the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day, 17 June, with minor depressions
noted during local day time hours in the southern Australian
region. Isolated periods of Spread F observed in the Australian
region. Expect similar MUF conditions to prevail today with possible
degradation at higher latitudes and a return to near predicted
monthly values on the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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