[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 20 09:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 June. 
There are currently two sunspot groups on the Sun. Very Low solar 
activity is expected for the next 3 days with a slight chance 
of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery up to 19/1436UT. The solar wind speed 
continues to decline from 550 to 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. 
The B total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 4 and 
5 nT, while the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Expect 
the solar wind speed to continue to decline to below 400 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12122000
      Cocos Island         2   111110--
      Darwin               4   1211----
      Townsville           4   12132000
      Learmonth            5   12133000
      Alice Springs        3   12122000
      Norfolk Island       3   12122000
      Culgoora             3   12222000
      Gingin               5   12133000
      Camden               4   12132000
      Canberra             3   02122000
      Launceston           6   13233000
      Hobart               4   12132000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   12233000
      Casey                8   33232110
      Mawson              17   24442134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3322 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     2    Quiet
21 Jun     2    Quiet
22 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 
over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day, 19 June with minor depressions 
observed in the Northern Australian region. Isolated periods 
of sporadic E observed in the Australian region. Expect these 
conditions to prevail during the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 572 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   290000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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