[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 30 09:30:23 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 29 July, 
with no flares. Mostly very low levels of solar activity are 
expected for today, 30 July. On 31 July and 1 Aug, the solar 
activity may reach low levels due to returning active region 
2655, which is expected to produce C-class flares and a remote 
chance of M-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 29 July. The solar 
wind speed varied in the range 400-450 km/s and continued to 
decline. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 4-5 nT during the 
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied in the range -2/+2 
nT. From late UT 30 July, the solar wind parameters are expected 
to start to increase again as another recurrent equatorial coronal 
hole approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk. 
The size of approaching coronal hole is larger compared to its 
size in the previous rotation. Thus a stronger effect is expected 
in this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01111100
      Darwin               2   01111101
      Townsville           2   11111101
      Learmonth            2   11111200
      Alice Springs        0   00100100
      Norfolk Island       1   10110000
      Gingin               1   01100100
      Camden               2   11111100
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   00111101
      Hobart               0   00100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00011200
      Casey                6   22321201
      Mawson              10   23222233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2111 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
31 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
01 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 29 July. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions and at times reaching active levels are expected for 
30 July. These forecasted disturbed conditions are due to the 
anticipated arrival of the corotating interaction region associated 
with a recurrent equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression 
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 30 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions 
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted 
values during the next three UT days (30 July - 1 Aug).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   224000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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