[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 29 09:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               80/20              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 28 July, 
with no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions 
on the visible solar disk. Mostly very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next 3 UT days (29 - 31 July). During 30-31 
July the solar activity may reach low levels due to returning 
active region 2655, which is expected to produce C-class flares. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery 
for the UT day 28 July up to 2200 UT. The solar wind speed varied 
in the range 430-480 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 
4-5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied 
in the range -5/+5 nT. During the next UT day, 29 July, the solar 
wind parameters are expected to be near its nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11122321
      Darwin               5   11122311
      Townsville           6   11122321
      Learmonth            6   11112420
      Alice Springs        5   10122321
      Norfolk Island       5   11022311
      Gingin               7   11112430
      Camden               5   11122311
      Canberra             3   00012310
      Launceston           7   11022421
      Hobart               5   11012321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     8   00022511
      Casey               10   23332321
      Mawson              32   33334274

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1110 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
31 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 28 July. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for 29 July. On 30 July, conditions can reach unsettled 
to active levels due to the anticipated arrival of the corotating 
interaction region associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression 
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions 
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted 
values during the next three UT days (29 to 31 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   255000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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