[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 17 issued 2334 UT on 21 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 22 09:34:42 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed showed gradual increase from ~500 km/s to
~~730 km/s by mid day and then a gradual decrease to 600 km/s
by 2300 UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field,Bz, varied mostly between +/-7 nT during the UT day today
(21 July). Solar wind speed is expected to continue to show gradual
weakening over the next 24 hours. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (22 to 24 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 33212211
Darwin 7 33212211
Townsville 8 33312211
Learmonth 10 33322311
Alice Springs 7 33212211
Norfolk Island 7 33212111
Gingin 8 32222311
Camden 7 33212211
Canberra 4 22202101
Launceston 8 33212212
Hobart 5 22212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 22213411
Casey 11 33332213
Mawson 33 54543326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
23 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
across Australian region today (UT day 21 July). Nearly similar
levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 22 and 23 July
with the possibility of some active periods on 22 July. Mostly
quiet levels of geomagnetic activity are expected on 24 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours with minor depressions in some low-latitude
regions. Some periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were
also recorded. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next three days (22 to 24 July) with the possibility
of some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on 22 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian region with minor depressions
in the Northern regions. Some periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements
were also recorded throughout the Australian region. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal during the next three days
(22 to 24 July) with the possibility of some periods of minor
to mild MUF depressions in the region on 22 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background:
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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