[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 23 09:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 550 km/s and 630 km/s
today (22 July UT day). The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field,Bz, varied mostly between +/-7 nT during this
period. Solar wind speed is expected to show gradual weakening
over the next 24 hours. Very low levels of solar activity may
be expected for the next three days (23 to 25 July). ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 22/2035UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 22441322
Darwin 13 23441322
Townsville 14 23442322
Learmonth 17 23541422
Alice Springs 12 22441322
Norfolk Island 11 22441212
Gingin 13 23441322
Camden 15 22452322
Canberra 10 22441211
Launceston 18 22552322
Hobart 14 22452222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 19 11552333
Casey 16 33332531
Mawson 38 65553434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 76 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 4421 2423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
24 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels across
Australian region today (UT day 22 July). Nearly similar levels
of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 23 July. Geomagnetic
activity is then expected to gradually decline to quiet to unsettled
levels on 24 July and to quiet levels on 25 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours with minor depressions in some low-latitude
regions and periods of minor to mild enhancements in mid-latitude
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during
the next three days (23 to 25 July) with the possibility of some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on 23 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian region with minor depressions
in the Northern areas and periods of minor to mild enhancements
in Central and Southern areas. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal during the next three days (23 to 25 July)
with the possibility of some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
in the region on 23 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 487000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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