[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 17 issued 2340 UT on 17 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 18 09:40:37 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Low over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Low solar activity is expected for the next 24 hours with 
a slight chance of an M-class flare. No Earthward bound CMEs 
observed from LASCO C2 imagery up to 1436UT. The solar wind speed 
remained elevated under the continued effect of 14 Jul CME, ranging 
between 500km/s to 600km/s over the UT day and is ~550km/s at 
the time of this report. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz 
component fluctuated between +/-10 nT with sustained southward 
periods between 0730-1430UT and B total varied around 10nT.The 
magnitude of Bz component declined over the last half of the 
UT day, currently fluctuating between +/-5nT. Expect the solar 
wind to remain elevated today, 18 Jul due to the continued CME 
effects, and to gradually decrease over the following two days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      22   23544511
      Darwin              14   23334411
      Townsville          22   23544511
      Learmonth           23   33445521
      Alice Springs       19   23444511
      Norfolk Island      19   23544401
      Gingin              22   32445521
      Camden              27   23555511
      Canberra            18   13544400
      Launceston          35   23665511
      Hobart              26   23654411    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    55   33577611
      Casey               22   33333623
      Mawson              59   76644554

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             37                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             42   2146 6555     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul    15    Quiet to Active
19 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul     8    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity reached Minor Storm levels across 
the Australian region with Major Storm levels in high latitude 
regions due to the CME effects. Active periods may persist today, 
18 Jul, then geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to 
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on 19-20 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in 
the Australian region and a possibility of Minor depressions 
towards the Antarctic region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
19 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Notable enhancements for 
Niue Island region during the local night. Noted isolated periods 
of sporadic E in the Northern Australian region. Expect near 
monthly MUFs for the next three days in the Australian region 
and a possibility of Minor depressions towards the Antarctic 
region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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