[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 17 issued 2338 UT on 18 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Jul 19 09:38:18 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several 
B and low level C-class flares from active region 2665 as it 
passed over the west limb. There are currently no numbered regions 
on the solar disc. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low 
over the next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. 
No Earthward bound CMEs observed from available LASCO C2 imagery. 
The solar wind speed remained elevated ranging between 550km/s 
to 600km/s over the UT day. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field 
Bz component fluctuated between +/-10 nT until ~0800 UT and has 
decreased in magnitude since, currently neutral at the time of 
this report. B total varied between 5-10nT. Expect the solar 
wind to decrease over the next two days, 19-20 Jul. An increase 
in solar wind parameters may be observed 21 Jul due a coronal 
hole and associated high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22211000
      Darwin               3   22210001
      Townsville           3   22211001
      Learmonth            4   23210000
      Alice Springs        3   22210000
      Norfolk Island       2   22200000
      Gingin               2   22111000
      Camden               3   22211000
      Canberra             2   22101000
      Launceston           5   33212000
      Hobart               3   22102000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   23101000
      Casey               10   34421101
      Mawson              24   65421024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             33   3455 4623     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul     5    Quiet
21 Jul    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours for 
the Australian region. High solar wind speed with nominal magnetic 
field, Unsettled periods may be observed today, 19Jul. Mostly 
Quiet Conditions 20 Jul. Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active 
periods on 21 Jul due to the influence of coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in 
the Australian region and a possibility of occasional MUF depressions 
due to the lack of active regions on the visible disc.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Sporadic E events observed 
through the region. Strong Blanketing at the times particularly 
at Cocos Island station. Continuing Sporadic E events likely 
over the next few days. With region 2665 rotation off the disc 
there is less compensating EUV and X-Ray flux. Occasional MUF 
depressions may be observed over the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 527 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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