[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 5 09:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours due to 
activity around the west limb near the equatorial region with 
a C1.1 class X-ray flare at 04/0425UT. Currently no sunspot on 
the visible solar disc. Expect Very Low solar activity for the 
next three days. No Earthward CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery 
up to 04/1648UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 410km/s 
to 320km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 350km/s. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz 
ranged from +/-3nT during this same period and Btotal varied 
between 5 and 3 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range 
for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         1   11100011
      Darwin               1   11000101
      Townsville           2   11000112
      Learmonth            2   11110012
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Norfolk Island       1   21000000
      Gingin               2   10100022
      Camden               1   01000101
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           1   11001001
      Hobart               0   01000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                4   23200011
      Mawson              15   22220136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2311 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul     6    Quiet
06 Jul     6    Quiet
07 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed during the last 24 hours in 
the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were near predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods of sporadic 
E in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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