[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 6 09:30:31 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Currently one sunspot on the visible solar disc at S05E80. Active 
region 2665,associated with the sunspot, subflared in h-alpha 
at 05/1959UT. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next 
three days. No Earthward bound CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery 
up to 05/2048UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 360km/s to 
290km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 325km/s. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz 
ranged from +/-3nT during this same period and Btotal remained 
near 4 to 5 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range 
for the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   12100001
      Learmonth            0   01000000
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Norfolk Island       2   21100001
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   10000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11100001
      Mawson               4   22100003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul     6    Quiet
07 Jul     6    Quiet
08 Jul    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed during the last 24 hours in 
the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the 
next two days. Midway through UT day three, 08 July, expect geomagnetic 
activity to pick up due to equatorial positive polarity recurrent 
coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were near predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods of sporadic 
E and spread F in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    16200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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