[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 4 09:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    1615UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours due 
to activity on the west limb near the equatorial region. Expect 
Very Low solar activity for the next three days. No Earthward 
CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery up to 03/1448UT. The solar 
wind speed decreased from 450km/s to 410km/s over the last 24 
hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz ranged from +8/-3 during this same period and Btotal 
slowly weaken from ~8nT to near 3nT. Expect the solar wind to 
remain at this level or lower for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22011111
      Cocos Island         4   23011110
      Darwin               4   23111101
      Townsville           5   23021111
      Learmonth            5   23111211
      Alice Springs        3   12011111
      Norfolk Island       3   22020101
      Gingin               4   12011222
      Camden               4   12021211
      Canberra             2   12011100
      Launceston           5   22121211
      Hobart               3   12021210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   11030100
      Casey                8   23222222
      Mawson              12   13311125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             18   3344 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     4    Quiet
05 Jul     4    Quiet
06 Jul     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were near predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods of sporadic 
E in the Australian region, particularly at Darwin station.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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