[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 17 issued 2348 UT on 02 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 3 09:48:45 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 1325UT heading westward
with no earth-directed component. Region 2664 (N18W84) is currently
the only region on the visible disc and remains quiet. The solar
wind speed ranged between 310km/s and 540km/s over the UT day
and is ~440km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz underwent notable sustained
southward excursions between 0240UT and 0730UT reaching a maximum
of -10nT at 0717UT. Bz ranged between +11nT and -10nT for the
first half of the UT day and +8nT and -4nT for the latter half.
Solar wind speed is expected remain enhanced over the next 2
days due to a combination of the slow moving partial halo CME
from 28Jun on 3Jul followed by minor coronal hole effects. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a small
chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 23443123
Cocos Island 11 23333123
Darwin 14 33343123
Townsville 15 33443123
Learmonth 21 33553223
Alice Springs 15 33443123
Norfolk Island 11 33332123
Gingin 9 23332122
Camden 12 23442122
Canberra 8 23332012
Launceston 13 23443122
Hobart 10 13432112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 11 02542011
Casey 13 33432232
Mawson 32 54653224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 1432 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 20 Active
04 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 2 July and
is current for 2-3 Jul. Quiet to Active conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible
Active to Minor Storm periods for 03Jul due to CME effects. Quiet
conditions with possible Unsettled to Active periods for 04Jul
and mostly Quiet conditions for 05Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values
over the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes. Disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes. Depressed MUFs likely for for mid
latitudes and continued disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes over the next 2 days due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Ionospheric recovery to near predicted monthly values expected
for 05Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 31 was issued
on 2 July and is current for 2-3 Jul. Observed MUF's were near
predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours with slight enhancements
during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Depressed MUF's
possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support Antarctic regions 03Jul-04Jul due to anticipated increased
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for
05Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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