[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 17 issued 2348 UT on 02 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 3 09:48:45 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 1325UT heading westward 
with no earth-directed component. Region 2664 (N18W84) is currently 
the only region on the visible disc and remains quiet. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 310km/s and 540km/s over the UT day 
and is ~440km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz underwent notable sustained 
southward excursions between 0240UT and 0730UT reaching a maximum 
of -10nT at 0717UT. Bz ranged between +11nT and -10nT for the 
first half of the UT day and +8nT and -4nT for the latter half. 
Solar wind speed is expected remain enhanced over the next 2 
days due to a combination of the slow moving partial halo CME 
from 28Jun on 3Jul followed by minor coronal hole effects. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a small 
chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23443123
      Cocos Island        11   23333123
      Darwin              14   33343123
      Townsville          15   33443123
      Learmonth           21   33553223
      Alice Springs       15   33443123
      Norfolk Island      11   33332123
      Gingin               9   23332122
      Camden              12   23442122
      Canberra             8   23332012
      Launceston          13   23443122
      Hobart              10   13432112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    11   02542011
      Casey               13   33432232
      Mawson              32   54653224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             12   1432 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul    20    Active
04 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 2 July and 
is current for 2-3 Jul. Quiet to Active conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible 
Active to Minor Storm periods for 03Jul due to CME effects. Quiet 
conditions with possible Unsettled to Active periods for 04Jul 
and mostly Quiet conditions for 05Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes. Disturbed ionospheric 
support for high latitudes. Depressed MUFs likely for for mid 
latitudes and continued disturbed ionospheric support for high 
latitudes over the next 2 days due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
Ionospheric recovery to near predicted monthly values expected 
for 05Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
04 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
05 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 31 was issued 
on 2 July and is current for 2-3 Jul. Observed MUF's were near 
predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours with slight enhancements 
during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Depressed MUF's 
possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric 
support Antarctic regions 03Jul-04Jul due to anticipated increased 
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 
05Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    9.8 p/cc  Temp:    48300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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