[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 January 17 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 15 10:31:02 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
Neither of the 2 CMEs observed (one from region 2626 and one
back-sided) is likely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next 3 days, with a chance of C-class
flares. The solar wind speed has declined to around 340 km/s.
The IMF total strength declined from 5 nT, currently 4 nT. The
Bz component varied between -4 to +3 nT. There is a chance of
solar wind disturbance on 15-Jan due to a northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 12100102
Cocos Island 1 02100100
Darwin 3 12100112
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 3 22110102
Alice Springs 3 22000102
Gingin 3 21100112
Camden 3 12210002
Canberra 2 02100002
Launceston 5 12210113
Hobart 3 12201102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12100001
Casey 14 35421112
Mawson 11 24312133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 5 Quiet
17 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 14-Jan. Conditions could become unsettled during 15-Jan
due to possible effects of a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
16 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
17 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
16 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
17 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 13 January
and is current for 14-16 Jan. MUFs were mildly to moderately
depressed across Australia on 14-Jan and enhanced 03-10 UT at
Niue Island. Widespread sporadic-E was observed. Similar conditions
are likely for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 23500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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