[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 16 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next 3 days, with a chance of C-class
flares. The solar wind speed varied between 310-350 km/s, currently
around 330 km/s. The IMF total strength peaked at 5 nT, currently
2 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to increase late 18-Jan due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21112121
Cocos Island 2 11011120
Darwin 5 21112122
Townsville 4 21112111
Learmonth 4 21102121
Alice Springs 4 21112121
Gingin 4 21112121
Camden 5 21212121
Canberra 2 11102010
Launceston 6 12213121
Hobart 6 12213003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11112110
Casey 11 24422121
Mawson 10 41312232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0110 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 5 Quiet
17 Jan 5 Quiet
18 Jan 18 Quiet, then minor storm.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and
is current for 18-19 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region on 15-Jan. Conditions are expected to remain
quiet until late on 18-Jan when coronal hole effects are likely
to bring minor storm conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
17 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
18 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
17 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
18 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 13 January
and is current for 14-16 Jan. Daytime MUFs were mildly to moderately
depressed across Australia on 15-Jan and enhanced 05-12 UT at
Cocos Island. Widespread sporadic-E was observed. Similar conditions
are likely for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 13200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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